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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still